The economic adverse effects of corona are certain

- In three years, the country's economy is estimated to lose Rs 50 lakh crore in production

If you believe that the second wave of Corona is the worst crisis you have ever experienced in your life, you may be wrong. For those who have been under the influence of Corona, the experience has been a nightmare for them and their families. Every person affected by the corona, whether they are home quarantined, admitted to the Covid Center or hospitalized for treatment, goes through the experience of fear of death. The total fatality rate rose to two per cent in May and everyone affected prays that they should not die because of Corona.

Even for those who have not been affected, the experience of living in this world under the influence of the epidemic has been very scary. When a family member, friend or co-worker receives news of a corona infection, he or she may wonder if it will be his or her turn. Doctors, nurses, paramedics and hospital staff are also going through a lot of bad experiences. Many of these people have died so that their families are plunged into grief and uncertainty.

The experience of Kovid-12 has not been good for the Prime Minister, Union Health Minister, other ministers and bureaucrats. They know about it themselves and you know, so I don't want to go into details.

More and more people will be pushed into debt

There is one thing in the future due to Corona that is not uncertain and that is the economic condition of the people of the country. The economic condition of the people of the country will be much worse than it should be. Inequality will increase and more and more people will be pushed into poverty and debt and slip into despair. According to the estimates of the National Statistical Office (NSO) for the last three financial years, the GDP figures on the constant price are as follows: -31 ઃ Rs.18,03,8 crore.

According to the NSO, GDP grew by 9 per cent in 2015-16, the year before Koro, but is projected to decline by 5 per cent in 2020-21. We are now facing another wave of corona in which we have seen a new peak of 9,17,50 infections and 7 deaths in a single day. The current active cases are 2,6,7. Going forward, in the current financial year i.e. 2021-2, will GDP increase, remain stable or decrease? So far, with the exception of claims made by the government, other indications are not encouraging. Some people are hoping for positive growth while some economists are skeptical about growth. Today, we assume that the growth rate for the current financial year will be zero and hope that the result will be good.

Decrease in production

Production figures can shed light on GDP performance. In FY2017, we have lost an estimated output of about Rs 2.50 lakh crore. In the financial year 2020-21, i.e. in the first year of Corona, there was a loss of Rs 11 lakh crore in production. Assuming zero economic growth in the current financial year, the GDP at constant prices will be around Rs 15 lakh crore. However, when India is a developing nation, even if we estimate a growth rate of five per cent under normal circumstances, there seems to be a loss of Rs 2.50 lakh crore in production, which in fact should have been added to GDP. Thus, in three years, the country's economy is estimated to lose Rs 50 lakh crore in production.

Such a massive decline in production would mean huge losses in employment, income, savings, etc. According to the latest CMIE data on unemployment, the unemployment rate in the country has risen to 11.15 per cent, of which 12.5 per cent is in urban areas and 10.16 per cent in rural areas. An estimated one crore jobs have been lost in 2020-21. The second wave, which has reached the villages, will hit employment in small towns and rural areas. The data shows that there has been a mass exodus from urban to rural areas. 4 million jobs have been created in the agricultural sector but such employment is not permanent.

Cutting down on food costs

Losing employment means losing income. The RBI's May 2021 bulletin described the demand shocks as "essential spending" by the people, which has led to an increase in inventories. Some reports claim that families are taking out loans and cutting back on food to cope with the shocks.

Thus every key index for a strong economy is looking negative. Economic conditions will adversely affect the livelihood of families and have a direct impact on life. Thus, another major calamity is looming over us in the financial year 2021-2.