The government needs to listen to others to accelerate the country's growth rate

- India as a country and the average Indian has lagged far behind what it was in 2016-17

Pictures drawn from the corner office at the top of Raisina Hill can be fascinating. This can be especially appealing if the pictures are selected by the chief economic adviser. For example, the decline in employment in the EPF and the increase in new recruits, the picture of providing five kilos of foodgrains to the poor every month for two months instead of a hungry face, and the landlord being honored instead of a hardworking farmer.

The average Indian does not have the ambition to go to Raisina Hill. He or she dreams of having a home in a village or at most in a town ward or city street. Because both the feet of the common citizen of the country are attached to the ground and their votes are bitter but also true.

Interesting findings of the survey

I requested a friend of mine to conduct a telephonic survey of 1000 lower middle class people. In our definition of a lower middle class person, we covered those with an income of Rs 5,000 to Rs 50,000 per month. 1008 respondents were asked 6 questions and they answered them. The e-mail IDs of the survey participants were also obtained. Even if some defendants may have shown their monthly income a little less, it won't make a big difference in our data.

Our questions relate to the 18 months since the first lockdown took effect on March 8, 2020. The findings of the survey are as follows:

1. The survey was attended by 1,008 people.

. Thirty times he said his income had declined. No change was reported by 114 and seven times the revenue was claimed.

. He said the cost has gone up three times. Expenditure remained unchanged at 118, while 21 declined.

. Nine of the survey participants claimed a decrease in their savings, but four reported a decrease in assets. The rest said there was no change in their savings and assets.

. As expected, he said he had to borrow money 203 times. He got the money from banks, lenders, microfinance institutions, family members and friends. Some said they received money from more than one source. ૬૫૩ People claimed to have received money on interest. Only 12 borrowers were confident that the money and interest would be paid on time, while 12 did not and 6 were skeptical.

Evidence around us

These findings are consistent with what we hear and see on a daily basis. The epidemic and the state of the economy have disrupted family balance sheets. Conditions like decline in income, increase in expenses, pressure to borrow money, decrease in savings have arisen. Unless there is more than one earner in the family, it is fair to say that most ordinary families are shaken and feel pushed into poverty.

If we take the lowest number out of four in answer to the four main questions related to income, expenditure, savings and borrowings, it is 206. This figure is about 50% of the total 1008 people surveyed. This picture does not establish our recent calculation that India is one of the fastest growing nations in the world's major economies. This is a major setback for the country's average annual economic growth rate of 7.50 per cent between 2008 and 2014, and the country's achievement of lifting 20 million people out of poverty in the same period.

Our findings are consistent with the NSO estimates of annual national income for the financial year 2020-21. The country's economic growth rate has slowed to 6.50 per cent in the last financial year. The four indices appear to be much weaker than they were two years ago. These indices are private consumption, gross fixed capital formation, imports and exports. The Reserve Bank has expressed concern that demand has hit the economy. Some economists are advising to increase costs and print more currency notes if necessary.

The NSO and our local survey provide a similar picture. This is a coincidence that has put the finance minister and the chief economic adviser in disarray.

Maybe but they will

The fact is that GDP and per capita income have been declining since 2015-16.

In 2016-17, the country's GDP figure was Rs 1,412,150 crore and per capita income was Rs 1,00,8. In 2016-17, the figures were Rs 1,200,417 crore and Rs 1,09,8 crore respectively. In 2015-16, it was Rs 15 crore and Rs 1,09,8 crore and in the last financial year, the figure was Rs 15,04,8 crore and Rs 4 crore.

India as a country and the average Indian has lagged far behind what it was in 2016-17. The country's economy has sunk. First because of the banknote ban and GST, then because of Corona and now because of economic mismanagement.

The 2016-17 situation can be regained at a slower pace, but for that the government will have to listen to the arguments and suggestions of the IMF, the Reserve Bank, economists and the opposition.