India's decades of 'goodwill' are likely to be washed away overnight

- India needs to be patient in terms of trade, investment and protection of strategic interests

- In the last two decades, India has spent Rs 2 crore on development works in Afghanistan

India has always been a strong supporter of the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan. However, there are fears that the fall of the democratic government and the return of the Taliban could pose a major threat to Indo-Afghan relations - bilateral trade.

India's trade and investment in Afghanistan:

Given its geographical proximity and historical ties, India should naturally be a major trading partner for Afghanistan. Nonetheless, bilateral trade relations have remained below capacity due to the difficulty of land transportation through the mountainous regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, the opening of the Chabahar Port Organization and the Air-Freight Corridor in Iran in 2014 boosted trade between the two countries. India's unused export capacity in Afghanistan is estimated at 4.5 million.

Earlier in the post-Taliban era, India's bilateral trade with Afghanistan increased 30-fold to ૧ 1 billion in 2015, and is projected to reach ૪ 1.5 billion by 2020. India's trade deficit with Afghanistan is huge, maintaining our steady trade surplus in imports and exports, which was estimated at ૪ 25 million in 2020.

India and Afghanistan signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement in October 2011. This has helped Afghanistan rebuild its infrastructure and institutions. Construction of the Parliament House of Afghanistan, renovation of its store palace, reconstruction of Habibia High School and construction of its Salma Dam, known as 'Afghan-India Friendship Dam', are various projects undertaken by India in Afghanistan. These projects provide evidence of India's participation in the development of Afghanistan.

India has invested વિકાસ 4 billion, or about Rs 5 crore, in development projects in Afghanistan from 2001 to November 2020, covering more than 200 projects in its six provinces. India provides assistance to the citizens of Afghanistan under its Indian Technology and Economic Corporation (AIMB) and Indian Council for Cultural Relations (AIMBHAI) programs, thus assisting Afghanistan in developing its human resource skills capacity. So far, more than 4,000 Afghan students have studied in India under various scholarships, and there are currently 15,000 such students.

Afghanistan at the center of South Asia and Central Asia:

India sees Afghanistan as a gateway to Central Asia, as it provides access to Central Asia's crude oil-rich countries and connectivity projects. India’s complex relations with its immediate neighbors in the North-West and the recent border dispute with China suggest that many close routes must be found to reach the wider markets of Central Asia. In the past, Pakistan blocked trade routes between India and Afghanistan (and beyond) through the Wagah Border Crossing and the Khyber Pass in Punjab. However, in 2020, in line with its commitment under the Pakistan-Afghanistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA), Pakistan allowed Afghan traders to enter its Wagah border with India, thus allowing Afghan exports to reach India. The agreement, however, does not allow trucks returning to Afghanistan to carry Indian goods there.

In case of any untoward situation, Chabahar port provides an alternative route for trade between India and Afghanistan. In March 2021, India proposed to extend the membership of Afghanistan and Uzbekistan in the International North-South Transport Corridor project and envisioned a land corridor between Kabul and Tashkent (in Uzbekistan). India has also suggested the inclusion of Chabahar port in the Anshjibh route. The completion of this project will help India expand its trade reach and could be a game changer in India's Eurasia and Central Asia trade policy.

India's investment and interest in Afghanistan in crisis:

With the return of the Taliban king to Afghanistan, India's many years of investment and established interests there are in jeopardy. India has invested heavily in Afghanistan and given the current situation, India needs to be patient in terms of trade, investment and protection of strategic interests. Given the current security situation in Afghanistan, India is at risk of losing its strategic importance in the region to other regional powers, such as China, which has invested heavily in Pakistan through its strategic port of Gwadar (part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor). However, it has invested 500 billion under its five-year bilateral agreement (looking at the Chabahar port).

It is a stark reality that with the return of the Taliban to Afghanistan, India has limited options to protect its interests. However, for India, Afghanistan is of great importance for expanding its strategic horizons in Central Asia in addition to South Asia.