Corona's third wave ... call for 'stay awake' is necessary

- There is no need to be afraid but the alert signal will have to continue for another six months

- Horizon-Bhaven Kutchi

- Epidemiologists believe that maximum vaccination is needed by the time the third wave arrives

- The third wave will come in August or December, but we can hardly fatalize it.

The central government has set up a National Covid Supermodel Committee to provide information from time to time on how Corona's graph will behave in the coming months. The three-member committee is headed by Professor M.K. Vidyasagar is.

Significant relief can be seen in the number of Koro cases in India, including Gujarat. The atmosphere, which last month was gloomy and gloomy, is now fading. A kind of lightness can be seen. Advertising in the newspapers is becoming back to normal. In Gujarat with a positive attitude, adequate care and protocol, the state government Decided to take 12th exam off line. If this plan goes well, there will be a lot of confidence in the state government and the citizens. Also, as the lives of the citizens are still stuck, Professor L. Vidyasagar, the head of the Supermodel Committee, and world-renowned doctors, virologists, warn the Central Government that the third wave of Corona will still come to India ... will come ... and will come.

Vijay Raghav, Principal Advisor, Medical Sciences, Central Government, has also made it clear that the third wave will come, but we will not be able to control the socks if we exercise restraint and wear masks until it arrives. However those who predict the third wave of the corona after their respective studies can see a difference in their duration. Pro. Vidyasagar says that according to our mathematical experience, by July 1, the number of corona cases in India would have dropped to 12,000 a day. By the end of May, there will be 1.5 lakh cases per day and by the end of June, there will be 20,000 cases.

According to their study, the third wave of corona in India may be at its peak after six to eight months i.e. between November and January. Pro. In the committee with Vidyasagar, IIT Kanpur Professor Mahendra Agarwal as well as Deputy Chief of Army Medical Services Lay. General Madhuri is Kanitkar.

They have concluded that the second wave of Corona will end in July. Professor Vidyasagar's team based their research in Italy on the fact that corona antibodies can stay in the body for six to eight months. In India, the immunity of those who have been vaccinated against coronary heart disease after six months is crucial. Seen this way, it shouldn't matter until next November, December.

Now, if India wants to reduce the effectiveness of the third wave, the maximum number of citizens who can get at least one dose of Corona vaccine by December could be a game changer.

Suppose a member of the household goes out for a job. The reason for the earlier cases was that the person would come from outside with a corona and go home and take everyone in the house in a corona. But now the same person who has been vaccinated with corona goes out for a job-business and he can stay free from corona which is why he keeps those who come in contact with him in the office or in the market and then at home free from corona.

Thus, if a person has the corona vaccine, he can protect hundreds. Family members and neighbors, office, shop mates can thus avoid corona. Vaccines are now a major contributor to the declining number of cases.

Assume that if 1 million citizens were vaccinated, two crore citizens would be spared from breaking the chain of transmission of their infection.

In the United States, only 11 million people out of a population of 20 million have been vaccinated against both vaccines. When we reach 200 million vaccines, we will feel some relief.

Now those who have not had corona and have not been vaccinated have to be careful. In India, out of a population of 12 crore, only 4.5 crore have been coronated. Half of them were in the first wave of last year. Whose antibodies may have faded over the course of more than six months.

Given that 150 million doses of the corona vaccine have been given, it is likely that another 120 million corona will be seized in India. The only solution is to maximize vaccinations and increase immunity by wearing our masks, hygiene as well as lifestyle with indigenous and allopathic guidelines.

Professor Vidyasagar is to report to the central government that if 300 crore doses are given to the citizens by December, the third wave cannot spread fear.

In the first wave, 1.10 crore cases were reported in 10 months, but in the second wave, as the strain of the virus changed, between March 1 and May 5 this year alone, 1.5 crore cases of corona were reported. The country's medical system was at one point under tremendous pressure due to this unimaginable attack.

Even if the third wave comes, it can be said that such panic cannot be created.

Giridhar Babu, a professor in the Department of Infectious Diseases for six years with the World Health Organization and a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, is currently working with the Public Health Foundation of India. 'Epidemic' has been his subject. He estimates that the third wave is based on how responsibly citizens behave when different states provide relief from a lockdown in June.

Seeing that vaccination has not picked up speed yet, July-August may be heavy if we show leniency in June. This will be followed by November-December. According to Professor Giridhar, now small villages and hamlets have to be very careful. He has appealed to those who can stay away from gatherings, crowds, ceremonies, staffed offices for another six months. At least we have to be careful now.

The chairman of Medanta Hospital in Delhi, Dr. Ambareesh Mithal has also done research on 'epidemics'. He has made five humble requests to neutralize the influence of the third wave. (1) Get tested as soon as corona symptoms appear. Now the cases of corona have decreased so don't assume that you can't have corona anymore. (2) Accept the mask as an integral part or dress. Don't go to gatherings or closed-door halls even if the government allows it. (2) Vaccination is required. (3) The government is to prepare hospitals, beds, oxygen, medicine in the time available between the second and third possible wave and (3) to increase the number of doctors, paramedics and other staff from village to village. Hospital management must be considered as an important branch of medical skill.

Scientists will also have to continue researching in such a way that in the third wave, let's assume that if the variant changes, how can it cope.

The state government also had to rely on the report or treatment method of the central government or the institutions, professors and medical experts associated with the center as well as their mechanism. In Gujarat, for example, cases are now declining with a sense of relief, so the reasons behind this should be studied. By keeping the lunch market closed? Because of the night curfew? Due to vaccination? So citizens are wearing masks under fear? So there are restrictions on acquisitions? If these are the only reasons, then lifting it will not make the case grow again, right?

Similarly, overall cases have increased in India but in some states there is still a trend of increasing or decreasing cases, which means that the whole of India is not moving out of the second wave in the same way. Still without bus, train, airline, restaurant, wedding, melavada, festivals, temple crowds, this is the second wave of declining figures. True freedom can be said to come six months after everything has returned to normal. Seen that way, the destination is still far away.

Only 90% of the citizens of the country or our state can live with restraint. Even if the government gives permission in a hurry like the king's horses are released. The government is also under pressure to keep the economy afloat. We also have to keep our heart beating.

Even if the third wave comes ... we and our children will work for a few months. Will be closing at home. If we go out, we will follow strict rules. This is the 'Survival of the Fittest' race that no one imagined in the 21st century. We act in such a way that the third wave never comes. Can't influence if it comes. Let's keep the second half of 2021 on alert.